AP's NFL MOCK DRAFT - FIRST ROUND PICKS

This represents the picks of AP's Dave Goldberg.

1. OAKLAND. Al Davis loves quarterbacks who can throw the ball 80 yards in the air. But it's not done in games, so why should it matter? It matters with Davis, one reason he wants JAMARCUS RUSSELL, QB, LSU. The Raiders are 15-49 since going to the Super Bowl after the 2002 season so it will take more that Russell to fix that, especially lying on his back. A building block. Maybe.


2. DETROIT. Matt Millen is in denial. The Lions are 24-72 since he took over and he thinks the coaches he hired are to blame.

He has potentially great players to pick from here, none better than Calvin Johnson, almost unanimously regarded as the best overall player available. But Millen took wide receivers three straight years and only Roy Williams panned out. So if he takes Johnson, people will laugh at him. (As if they aren't already.)

Quinn? He's traumatized by Joey Harrington.

Joe Thomas, a stud left tackle? Well, Robert Gallery was a sure shot left tackle in 2004 and now he's a bum (see Raiders above).

Adrian Peterson, the best running back in the draft? Why not?

Maybe he trades down and still gets one of them. Let's give him BRADY QUINN, QB, Notre Dame whose stock price is rising again.


3. CLEVELAND. Johnson would be a luxury for the Browns. But they might threaten to take him to work a deal with Tampa Bay. Quinn makes sense if he's here but he's not. So it's ADRIAN PETERSON, RB, Oklahoma.


4. TAMPA BAY. Jon Gruden may not know if Jeff Garcia or Chris Simms is his QB (anyone for Jake Plummer?) but he wants CALVIN JOHNSON, WR, Georgia Tech, catching passes. Who wouldn't?


5. ARIZONA. We're being nice to the Cardinals. Their offensive line stunk last year and JOE THOMAS, OT, Wisconsin might slide. If he does, he'll probably turn into Gallery — the Cardinals are the Cardinals, winners of one playoff game in the last 60 years because something always goes wrong for them at the top of the draft.


6. WASHINGTON. Yeah, they might trade with the Bears for Lance Briggs and give up this pick (another questionable Dan Snyder move if it happens). If they're here, GAINES ADAMS, DE, Clemson, works for a team that had little pass rush last season.


7. MINNESOTA. If Quinn doesn't go high, he goes here. If he's not here, the Vikings might trade down (if there's a taker) and get one of the receivers who'll be around later. The secondary is nothing special. LEON HALL, CB, Michigan.


8. HOUSTON. After Calvin Johnson, 19-year-old AMOBI OKOYE, DT, Louisville, may have the most long-term potential in the draft. Of course these are the guys who passed on Reggie Bush and Vince Young.


9. MIAMI. Some of the Dolphins' offensive problems stem from an awful offensive line. LEVI BROWN, OT, Penn State.


10. ATLANTA. The Falcons went to the Super Bowl after the 1998 season with Jamal Anderson at running back. JAMAAL ANDERSON, DE, Arkansas might not get them there right away, but they have to replace Patrick Kerney.


11. SAN FRANCISCO. The 49ers may end up being a trendy choice to make the playoffs because they picked up so much in free agency. But they still need help on defense and some people think PATRICK WILLIS, LB, Mississippi, is Ray Lewis. (Those people should wait a while.)


12. BUFFALO. The Bills have done some strange things in the offseason, shedding CB Nate Clements because he was too expensive, then overpaying G Derrick Dockery. They drafted Donte Whitner "too high" last season and he turned out to be very good. "Too high" for MARSHAWN LYNCH, RB, Cal. So he'll be a stud.


13. ST. LOUIS. Buyer beware. ALAN BRANCH, DT, Michigan, is the poor man's Brady Quinn, bouncing up and down the board. He might be a run-stuffing catch here, although the Rams haven't had much luck with DTs taken high.


14. CAROLINA. For confusion's sake, it would be fun if the Panthers took Southern Cal receiver Steve Smith to team with Steve Smith. Maybe later. REGGIE NELSON, S, Florida, meets a need.


15. PITTSBURGH. A lot of folks think they'll take undersized linebacker Lawrence Timmons because he's a lot like the departed Joey Porter. And he fits the Tampa 2 defense that Mike Tomlin prefers. Subject to change: LAWRENCE TIMMONS, LB, Florida State.


16. GREEN BAY. For trivia buffs, Jerry Rice ran a 4.6 40-yard-dash before the draft and was taken 16th overall in 1985. DWAYNE JARRETT, WR, Southern Cal, ran a 4.62 and while he's not Rice, neither is he Mike Williams, his predecessor at USC and one of the stiffs Millen took for Detroit. Gives Brett Favre a tall possession guy to team with Donald Driver.


17. JACKSONVILLE. The Jags' defensive tackles are as good as anyone's. JARVIS MOSS, DE, Florida, provides outside speed.


18. CINCINNATI. Two Bengals CBs are on the team's deep arrest list. DARRELLE REVIS, CB, Pitt, hasn't had any off-field problems. He also can cover.


19. TENNESSEE. Does anyone think "Pacman" Jones will be in Nashville next season? CHRIS HOUSTON, CB, Arkansas.

20. NEW YORK GIANTS. Tom Coughlin supposedly had a long meeting with PAUL POSLUSZNY, LB Penn State. Coughlin's a decent guy with a bad rep, and Posluszny has no choice but to play for him when the Giants take him.


21. DENVER. DLs picked up from Cleveland take you only so far. Draft your own: ADAM CARRIKER, DE, Nebraska.


22. DALLAS. This is what happens with early "mocks." In a real draft, LaRON LANDRY, S, LSU, should go much higher. In the mock world, he goes to a team coached for 29 seasons by a Hall of Famer with the same last name.


23. KANSAS CITY. For all their offensive success, the Chiefs have gotten by without a true No. 1 wide receiver. DWAYNE BOWE, WR, LSU.


24. NEW ENGLAND. Bill Belichick, who got this pick from Seattle for Deion Branch, continues a productive offseason with MICHAEL GRIFFIN, S, Texas to help a thin secondary.


25. NEW YORK JETS. The Jets are moving their training base to New Jersey. GREG OLSEN, TE, Miami, comes from New Jersey. Good reason to mock draft him, and let him play in the same stadium as another Miami TE, Jeremy Shockey.


26. PHILADELPHIA. The Eagles signed Kevin Curtis to improve the wide receiver position. More help from ROBERT MEACHEM, WR, Tennessee, which is where the departed Donte' Stallworth played.

27. NEW ORLEANS. It's good to be drafting this low because it means you won a lot. It's bad to be drafting this low when all the CBs you need are off the mock board. BRANDON MERIWEATHER, S, Miami, would go higher if he didn't have the kind of behavioral red flags that no one wants to see right now.


28. NEW ENGLAND. The Patriots have a small draft board made up of players who fit Bill Belichick's schemes. It might contain ANTHONY SPENCER, DE-LB, Purdue, a guy like Willie McGinest and Adalius Thomas from the school that produced Rosevelt Colvin.


29. BALTIMORE. Lost two starting OLs and Jonathan Ogden's status is unclear. Ozzie Newsome isn't afraid of small(er) college guys like JOE STALEY, OT, Central Michigan.


30. SAN DIEGO. The team that has everything can afford TED GINN Jr., WR, Ohio State, who doesn't run the greatest routes but can do what Devin Hester did for the Bears last season. OK, that's a stretch, but at least Ginn plays a position.


31. CHICAGO. Carolina's Steve Smith gave the Bears fits in the playoffs a year ago. STEVE SMITH, WR, Southern Cal. Perfect possession guy and the sort of receiver who often does better than speedsters like Ginn.


32. INDIANAPOLIS. If the Colts take a linebacker, they have him for four or five years until he leaves. JON BEASON, LB, Miami, is just what Tony Dungy likes: an undersized guy for the weak side.