NFLDraftGuys.com's Mock Draft - Round One

From NFLDraftguys.com

1. Oakland - JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
We are set up to have some nice suspense about the #1 overall pick. The possible Moss deal could open the door for Calvin Johnson here. I would personally take Johnson, but Russell also fits the Davis fetish for freakish athletes, and he's almost an ideal QB to mesh with Davis's penchant for the vertical passing game. If Lane Kiffin and Greg Knapp have any say (stop laughing), Brady Quinn could be the pick.

2. Detroit - Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
Every time I project Detroit's pick, I end up feeling like they are just going to trade down. It makes sense for so many reasons. Still, how often have the words "makes sense" and Detroit been in the same sentence in the Millen era? If they do stay home, Thomas is the best pick. He will instantly reduce the number of times Jon Kitna has to do his impression of Arnold Schwarznegger in the "The Running Man".

3. Cleveland - Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
One would think that Romeo Crennel has a direct pipeline to Charlie Weis to get the dirt on Quinn. Brady has composed himself like a franchise QB in the postseason activities - it's hard to see him dropping much farther than the top 7, and he'll certainly be ahead of Russell on some teams boards. Cleveland needs a face of the franchise and reason for hope for the future, and Quinn will instantly fill that need quicker than you can say "Tim Couch".

4. Tampa Bay - Calvin Johnson, WR - Georgia Tech
It's hard to have Johnson fall this far, but if Oakland doesn't take him, he should, assuming that no one trades up with Detroit or Cleveland to snag "the prototype". Johnson is absolutely the kind of player that teams talk themselves into trading up for. Our friends at the The Pewter Report told us that Tampa was set on Johnson or Thomas, and I still believe that.

5. Arizona - Levi Brown, OT, PSU
I can just as easily justify Alan Branch, Gaines Adams, or Jamaal Anderson here. Even Adrian Peterson. Alas, this is one of the few times I will cite need in projecting a top 10 pick. The Cardinals desperately need Brown to pan out and anchor their line for the long haul. They were right to not overpay Leonard Davis and let him walk. Arizona is almost as good a candidate to trade down as Detroit, so that remains the biggest possibility in my head, but the pick should be Brown if they stay home, otherwise, they'll be having open auditions at LT, and that's a recipe for disaster.

6. Washington - LaRon Landry, S, LSU
As of this moment, it's possible that Washington will have traded this pick for some magic beans by the time April 28 rolls around. A Landry/Sean Taylor combination in the deep middle could be staggeringly good and make up for the pass rush and run defense deficiencies. Just like Arizona, you can really make a good case for any of the top defensive lineman here - as it stands right now, there's no one on the roster that can consistently keep blockers off of London Fletcher-Baker or get pressure on the QB.

7. Minnesota - Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
Gaines Adams provides the best instant pass rush shot in the arm of any DE in the draft. The Vikes are hurting for a sack artist since their recent rolls of the dice at DE in the first round, Kenichi Udeze and Erasmus James, have come up snake eyes.

8. Atlanta - Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
Atlanta should surely get either one of Adams/Anderson to compliment John Abraham, or LaRon Landry to hold down the deep middle, showing exactly why the move up from 10 to 8 is not trivial.

9. Miami - Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
I have to think Miami would scoop up Landry if he fell, but Atlanta trading up reduced the chance of that happening. The phones would probably be ringing with inquiries from teams looking to trade up for Peterson at this point. Branch would probably be enough reason to stay home - Keith Traylor clearly found what Ponce De Leon was looking for in South Florida, but the magic will wear off soon, and Traylor was a bigger key to their defensive success than you would probably think. Patrick Willis or whomever the top CB is on the Fins board should also be considerations here.

10. Houston - Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
The opportunity to take Peterson would be a PR coup for a franchise that is on the ropes. Peterson still being there sets up an interesting tension between the Kubiak/Denver philosophy of plug and play at RB and the chance to add a real difference maker at RB. A partner for Dunta Robinson at CB also makes a ton of sense here.

11. San Francisco - Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss
The 49ers staff, especially Mike Singletary, got to work very closely with Willis for a week in Mobile at the Senior Bowl and they loved what they saw. Adam Carriker also fits very well in San Francisco and remains a strong possibility.

12. Buffalo - Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
Finally I get to project the pick I've been toying with since December. It's not a slam dunk as Buffalo could choose to get an RBBC partner for Anthony Thomas later on the first day. Okoye might be an enticing BPA here.

13. St. Louis - Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
Okoye pretty much falls into the Rams lap here. He's a possible franchise player and definitely worthy of a higher pick.

14. Carolina - Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
How disappointed will Carolina be if Willis does not fall to them? Nelson's range would be a welcome addition in Carolina.

15. Pittsburgh - Adam Carriker, DL, Nebraska
Carriker is a Steelers type of player, and he'll fit no matter what Mike Tomlin and Dick Lebeau do with the defense.

16. Green Bay - Darrelle Revis, CB, Pitt
It's hard to project when the CBs will start coming off the board. Revis can be an instant answer at nickel back and punt returner, and make a nice understudy to Charles Woodson and Al Harris in his quest to become a shutdown corner at the next level.



17. Jacksonville - Ted Ginn, WR, Ohio State
Ginn is the second WR off the board because of his return skills more than his receiver skills. He hasn't run in the postseason, so this is about as high as he'll go. The Jags would gain a much needed return threat and speedster to stretch the field.

18. Cincinnati - Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
Cincinnati is fortunate to be positioned so that they are almost assured one of the top three CBs. Johnathan Joseph and whomever they get at this pick (assuming its a CB) could form a nice starting combo for years to come.

19. Tennessee - Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
Between the PacMan debacle and the Titans failure to land a big name in free agency like Nate Clements, CB MUST be addressed in this draft. Then again, the Tennessee WR corps is also screaming out for help, and they are likely to have some nice WRs like Robert Meachem and Dwayne Bowe to choose from. The Titans are lucky to have a good chance of getting a player that both fills a need and justifies a top 20 pick no matter how the first 18 picks go.

20. N.Y. Giants - Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
I'm not sure Sinorice Moss will project as a starting WR, and Amani Toomer is in the waning years of his career. Meachem would provide a great deep threat to stretch the field and open up the middle for Jeremy Shockey.

21. Denver - Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida
The Broncos eternal quest to bolster their pass rush continues. They are one of the most likely teams to make a move up in the first. It's very hard to say who the DE4 will be with an interesting 2nd tier of physical freaks DE/OLB tweeners at DE.

22. Dallas - Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
Gauging this pick is extremely difficult - only Al Davis meddles as much as Jerry Jones. The Cowboys WR quality is about to go off a cliff with both starters getting well into their 30s.

23. Kansas City - Ryan Kalil, C, USC
It's been a good run for Casey Weigmann, but it's time to get his replacement ready. Kalil can play guard until Weigmann goes off into the sunset. I don't know whether Kalil will be another first round center, but I feel confident he carries at least the same grade first round pick Nick Mangold carried last year.

24. New England (from SEA) - Brandon Meriweather, DB, Miami-Fl
Meriweather's skills allow him to play CB and S - interchangeability which is always valued in New England's defense. One side note, the shadowy Pats are always the hardest team to mock, something like trying to see through lead curtains by squinting.

25. N.Y. Jets - Greg Olsen, TE, Miami-Fl
The Jets try again to land a TE that will occupy safeties and give Pennington a nice target in the middle of the field after the Jolley debacle. I could see some teams preferring Miller to Olsen, so it's not a complete lock that he's the first TE to hear his name called in Radio City Music Hall.

26. Philadelphia - Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
A typical Eagles move of restocking at a position before its a glaring need. Brian Leonard could be in play here, and of course there's the boring old Eagles move of bolstering the lines with the first round pick.

27. New Orleans - Paul Posluszny, LB, PSU
Poz will provide toughness and smarts and help anchor the mediocre LB corps. If I were Mickey Loomis, I would be offering next year's first to move up and take Patrick Willis.

28. New England - Brian Leonard, RB, Rutgers
Yes, Leonard is a legit late first round pick. His character and versatility are outstanding, and he would provide an insurance policy for Maroney's shoulder.

29. Baltimore - Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
Staley now has a solid chance of getting in the first with his outstanding pro day. He's probably passed Tony Ugoh as the OT3.

30. San Diego - Justin Blalock, OL, Texas
San Diego is sitting pretty at most every position and can afford to spend a pick to build good depth on the line - Blalock is a mauler that fits their running game, and he'll can back up three positions on the line.

31. Chicago - Drew Stanton, QB, Michigan State
The Bears are also in good shape, enough that they can afford to gamble on Stanton recovering from his 2006 tailspin and giving them a long term upgrade from Rex Grossman. I could also see them going for Jon Beason or another LB that would give them some leverage over Lance Briggs

32. Indianapolis - Jon Beason, LB, Miami-Fl
It won't take Beason long to be better than the now departed Cato June. I expect the Colts to take a candidate for the open WLB position at some point in the first 4-5 rounds if they don't do it here.