A great Piece by Paul Attner from the Sportingnews


Scouting the NFL draft
By Paul Attner - SportingNews



It has been difficult to write much positive lately about Al Davis. But here's an attempt: He still recognizes that, if at all possible, you really should select the best available player on your draft board.

A cliche, yes, but there is truth within the bromide. Davis knows in his heart of football hearts that Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson, not LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell, should be the Raiders' choice as the No. 1 pick in this year's draft. Davis just needs to figure out how to clear up his horrid quarterback situation before the draft. If he can do that, then there's no question he will pounce on Johnson, easily the top player in this draft and one of the clearest "sure thing" prospects to come along in the last 10 years.

"He's a no-brainer, the cleanest, no flaws," says Dolphins general manager Randy Mueller. "Just because he is a receiver, I wouldn't be scared to take him that high because I don't think he will fail." That's the kind of praise you receive when you are 6-5, weigh 239, have game-breaking 4.35 speed and terrific hands and easily pass the character test.

Yet Russell still looms as the first choice because, even with a player of Johnson's ability available, you won't win without a good quarterback. "If you have a conviction on a quarterback and you have that need, you have to take him," says former Texans general manager Charley Casserly. "If the quarterback is among your top five guys, you can justify pushing him to No. 1."

Russell is one of those unpolished physical wonders who creates the most angst for scouts. He's really unlike anyone who has played the position in the NFL. He is athletic and huge -- a sculpted 6-5 3/8, 256 -- and can easily flick a pass 70 yards. His upside is enormous. But he has been out of shape during the offseason and his lower-body mechanics need work. There are questions about how quickly he will grasp a pro-style offense and whether his feet are nifty enough -- he's not Vince Young -- to avoid an overabundance of punishment. He could be a good player or a potential superstar, or he might be overwhelmed in the NFL. Too bad Johnson is not a quarterback.

And what about Brady Quinn?

Brady Quinn is this year's Matt Leinart. He'll probably come out of the draft process with the same view Leinart expressed last June. "These (scouts) look to drag you down," Leinart said with disgust. Quinn has gone through a similar dissection the past few months.

Unlike Russell, Quinn doesn't have much room for growth. So he doesn't excite anyone, much like Leinart, who slipped to Arizona at No. 10 last April. "Quinn is a solid player and you know what you are getting, and there is something to be said for that," says Scot McCloughan, 49ers vice president of player personnel.

Quinn has been groomed for much of his life to play quarterback in the NFL. He comes from a complex offense at Notre Dame, he has impressive work habits, his mechanics are flawless, and he is tough. And NFL folks aren't as hung up as you might expect on the "Can he win big games?" question attached to his resume. But sometimes he is inexplicably inaccurate, and he'll have to prove he can make consistently good decisions under pressure. At best, he is a second-level pro quarterback, below the Peyton Mannings and Carson Palmers.

But the Bears got to a Super Bowl with Rex Grossman, much less talented than Quinn. One scout compares Quinn to Eli Manning coming out of college. Based on Eli's play so far, that might be one comparison Quinn would want to avoid.

Character better count

Commissioner Roger Goodell certainly has grabbed the attention of teams for this draft. Background checks on prospects are being ramped up, and it's a good bet that some players with character issues who might have been chosen fairly high in previous drafts either will not be picked or will slip to later rounds.

After all, the Titans inexplicably wasted a first-round choice in 2005 on Pacman Jones, who had been removed from many draft boards because of his multiple behavior issues. Jones was such a problem at West Virginia that its coaching staff told some NFL teams the school did not want him to return for his senior year. Chris Henry also had a bunch of red flags at West Virginia, yet the Bengals still took him in the third round of the same draft. Now, no club wants to be the next Tennessee or Cincinnati.

In discussions with NFL scouts and coaches, the first reason they give as grounds to take a prospect off the board is violence against a woman. Other major reasons cited include repeated drug violations more serious than using marijuana; a pattern of other problems with the law, including DUIs and firearm possession; and a relatively new one, past involvement with gangs. Some teams also will downgrade or eliminate a player based on his immaturity or bad work habits.

"If he's a bad apple and you have him in the first round, he's just going to be a less expensive bad apple" if you draft him in a later round, Saints coach Sean Payton says. "But you still have a responsibility to the current roster to bring in that right person. Those guys are counting on that."

Here are five players whose draft status could be most affected by off-field issues:

UNLV cornerback Eric Wright (left USC because of drug issues).
Florida defensive tackle Marcus Thomas (failed two drug tests and was kicked off the team in November).
Syracuse cornerback Tanard Jackson (two positive drug tests).
Ole Miss outside linebacker Rory Johnson (immaturity, academic issues).
Texas cornerback Tarell Brown (two drug arrests in the past eight months).
This draft has wideouts aplenty

Even though there's just one Calvin Johnson in this draft, that doesn't mean your favorite team will be denied if it needs to grow stronger at receiver. There is an abundance of talent, which means a club could find a productive player as late as the fourth round.

"Calvin Johnson alone elevates the receiver group," says the 49ers' McCloughan. "But this is a really good bunch of guys, with a lot of potential. They all aren't the same as far as strengths and weaknesses, but there is a lot of athletic talent spread among them."

This depth is one reason some teams give for not wanting to move up to draft Johnson if Oakland fails to make him the first choice. Their thinking goes like this: Why give up draft picks and/or veteran players, even for someone as gifted as Johnson, if you have so many other quality receivers available?

"I could see six receivers drafted by the middle of the second round," John Dorsey, the Packers' director of college scouting says. "If that happens, you might even see a bigger run on the position."

That means LSU's Dwayne Bowe, USC's Dwayne Jarrett, Tennessee's Robert Meachem, Ohio State's Ted Ginn and either Ohio State's Anthony Gonzalez or LSU's Craig Davis -- or both -- might not last until Round 3. That still leaves the possibility of some intriguing prospects on the board: South Carolina's Sidney Rice, Fresno State's Paul Williams and USC's Steve Smith, among others.

And the weakest position? Tight end, where Miami's Greg Olsen is a shaky first-rounder. Colleges are running so much spread offense these days that they simply don't need tight ends, even though that position has taken on more importance lately on the pro level.

Hits and misses

When Ron Wolf, the former Packers general manager, studied past drafts to find some common denominators that characterized successful picks, he could find only one that stood out. More than not, the best players attended schools in the major conferences. It was not a perfect standard, but when it came down to choosing between two players in drafts, he consistently went with the guy from the big-name university.

I asked other scouts what they thought was the one characteristic of successful players from the drafts in which they had participated. Almost unanimously, they came up with one answer: effort.

"You want a guy who wants to show up every day and work," says the Dolphins' Mueller. "Does he want to punch a clock every day? If a guy works hard enough, he doesn't have to be physically perfect. His desire can make up for a lot of sins."

"They have had a burning desire to succeed," says Casserly. "Now, you are not sure how that will be affected once he is in the NFL and his life changes. Sometimes money will make a difference in how they work. But I think a guy who really wants to be good has less chance of letting money change him."

And those common traits that have led to misses?

"You fall in love with what guys do at the Combine and other workouts," says the Packers' Dorsey. "Or you fall in love with a guy's personality. He dazzles you, but he still can't play."

Forgetting production also leads to bad picks. Players who consistently produced good statistics, even if they don't have all the measurables, prove more reliable than the physical specimen who has no football instincts. "Tape doesn't lie," says Wolf. "If the guy keeps making plays on tape, you sit up and take note."

Here are four risky first-round prospects in this draft:

Clemson defensive end Gaines Adams (could wind up being only a situational player because of problems against the run).
Jarrett (lack of speed presents huge downside).
Olsen (lacks developed blocking skills).
Michigan defensive tackle Alan Branch (lack of consistency in games scares some scouts).
Where are the small-school players?

When the late Eddie Robinson had his best teams at Grambling, the NFL happily was finding gems at his and other so-called small schools. But what once was fertile ground for the pros has now dried up noticeably.

One NFL personnel man stared a few minutes at his preliminary board for this year's draft before finding any names of players from small schools. He finally identified two prospects he might pick, both in the late rounds. Other scouts say it's not quite that bad, but even they agree that predominantly black colleges and schools below Division I-AA no longer are developing as many top NFL players as they once did.

"It's dried up beyond dry," says Casserly. "We all have our theories as to why. But we met as a league 10 years ago about player development because we were concerned that as academic requirements rose in colleges, it would affect the talent coming into the NFL. And that is what is happening right now."

In addition, with more colleges recruiting nationally and with more Internet recruiting services increasing the scrutiny of prospects, it's now more unlikely that a really good high school player will escape big-school notice.

The best small-school player in this draft is Jacoby Jones, a receiver from Lane College, who's likely a fourth-round pick at best. Other small-school guys who could be drafted include Michael Allan, a tight end from Whitworth; Allen Barbre, a tackle from Missouri Southern; Kevin Boss, a tight end from West-ern Oregon; and Zak DeOssie, a linebacker from Brown.