DRAFTING STRATEGY: PREMIUM POSITIONS V. SKILL POSITIONS
By Danny Zyskind for Football Reporters Online

In recent drafts some teams don’t focus as much on the premium positions (QB, DL, including pass rushing linebackers & OL) but rather look for skill players with great athletic ability or for hybrid type players who can create mismatches. Additionally many teams seem to be drafting more need based than value based. There are more than a couple of ways to win in the NFL but the greatest chance for success comes from focusing your resources on the premium positions. A team cannot have an 8-10 year run of high level football, like the Colts, Eagles or Pats, without a great quarterback, the ability to protect that quarterback and disrupting the other team’s quarterback. You can have a couple of good years and even win a super bowl but you have no chance at a dynasty. Aside from giving you the best chance to win those positions are premium in that they have longer shelf lives than the skill positions.

There is no prevailing wisdom on which positions are most likely to produce a bust in the NFL. Every position has produced top picks that have busted and late round picks that have become great. I used to hear that drafting a quarterback in the top five and having him bust will set the franchise back five years. I don’t buy it. Most of the teams in the league have learned to manage the cap well and can overcome a bad selection much quicker. The important thing is not to let a bad selection cloud your judgment during a later draft. The Bengals, with a history of ineptitude, didn’t allow the failure of Akili Smith to dissuade them from drafting Carson Palmer.

In a league littered with injuries, contract disputes and salary cap issues, I don’t agree with the idea of using a top draft pick on a lesser quality player because there’s a need at that position. You can never have enough depth in this league. Regarding quarterbacks, the reality is too many teams seem content to move forward with average or below average players at that position. Not having a dire need for a player at a specific position doesn’t mean you shouldn’t make an attempt to improve it, particularly if it can be done at a premium position. Furthermore I am a believer that competition brings the best out of athletes. When you have a quality guy at a position and you use a high draft pick for a player at the same position chances are it will motivate the first player.

In this year’s draft the Raiders could have selected Darren McFadden or Glen Dorsey. If they weren’t concerned about Dorsey’s health they should have drafted him. Last year the much criticized Texans did the right thing by picking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush. The explosive skill players excite the fans but ultimately are less important when it comes to winning.

Lions Can Trace Futility to NFL Drafts
By LARRY LAGE
AP Sports Writer

DETROIT -- The Detroit Lions have lost 75 percent of their games since Matt Millen began running the franchise, in large part because nearly half of his first-round picks have been busts.

Joey Harrington and Charles Rogers were traded and cut, respectively, last year. Mike Williams might not make it to a third season in Detroit.


"You invest a lot of time and money into people you pick high and they're supposed to be game-changing players," Millen's first No. 1 pick, offensive tackle Jeff Backus, said Thursday. "You need them to pan out and be worthy of the pick.

"Nobody gets first-round stars every year, but we've had to go to free agency to fill some holes because at some point you need draft picks to develop."

Millen will have at least one more chance to get it right in the first round on April 28, when the Lions make the No. 2 pick overall or trade down to add picks and fill many needs.

If Detroit sticks with its spot, no one seems to know what Millen will do because arguments can be made for drafting any of the following: Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson; LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell; Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn; Wisconsin offensive tackle Joe Thomas; Clemson defensive end Gaines Adams; or Oklahoma running back Adrian Peterson.

All of those players have recently visited the Lions, except Peterson, who is scheduled to be at the team's headquarters Friday.

"This is one of the most interesting drafts of all time," NFL draft analyst Gil Brandt said. "Everybody knows who the top 10 players are, but nobody knows what team is going to take them and in what order they're going."

Draft-day misses, particularly in the first round, have led to Detroit posting an NFL-worst record of 24-72 since Millen became the team's chief executive in 2001.

The only other stretch of futility in league history that compares is Tampa Bay's 12 straight double-digit loss seasons from 1983-94.

Millen got off to a good start in his first draft after leaving a low-stress, lucrative job as a TV analyst.

Backus was selected 18th overall in 2001 and has been durable and effective enough to start every game -- and get a new contract. Second-round pick Shaun Rogers turned into a Pro Bowl defensive tackle, and another second-rounder, Dominic Raiola, has started each game at center the last five seasons.

Wide receiver Roy Williams and running back Kevin Jones were drafted with savvy moves in the 2004 first round. Linebacker Ernie Sims had a solid rookie season last year, making Millen feel good about taking a defensive player for the first time with a first-round pick.

Millen's first three picks -- Backus, Raiola and Shaun Rogers -- bolstered the lines, perhaps fittingly for a player that won Super Bowls as a tough linebacker.

Then, Millen invested millions of William Clay Ford's money in some picks who didn't appear to fit his image as a gritty player.

Harrington was taken third overall in 2002 to end a decades-long search for a quarterback. Rogers was added with the second pick the next year to give Harrington a go-to receiver.

Millen stunned everyone by taking Mike Williams 10th overall two years ago, making him the first executive to take wide receivers in the first round three straight years since the NFL and AFL merged drafts in 1967.

"The league now is like the AFL was from 1965-69 -- it's a throwing, wide-open game," Millen said, explaining his reasoning in a 2005 interview with the AP. "That all points to catching the football."

The experiment failed miserably, helping to create a bleak present and questionable future for a franchise with only one playoff victory since winning the NFL title a half-century ago.

"If you miss too much with the draft, like the Lions have, it's hard to overcome," said Brandt, who was vice president of player personnel for the Dallas Cowboys from 1960-89.

Millen clearly missed on Harrington and Charles Rogers and all signs are pointing toward Mike Williams being another draft-day mistake.

Harrington was traded after four lackluster seasons to Miami for a fifth-round pick. The Dolphins cut him this offseason and he's now in Atlanta.


Charles Rogers was released just before last season and is still looking for work. His career in Detroit ended with just 36 receptions for 440 yards and four touchdowns, along with two broken collarbones and a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy.

"Looking back on it, and I've told Joey this, it would've been hard for him to succeed because he was thrown right in the mix and had the weight of the team on his shoulders," Backus said. "Charles obviously had off-the-field issues, but I'll always wonder if he would've avoided them if two broken collarbones didn't take him away from the team for basically two seasons."

Millen has acknowledged the franchise couldn't afford to regret taking Harrington and Charles Rogers.

"They can't do it alone, but in order for us to get where we want to get, we can't look back and say we missed with those guys," Millen said in 2003.

To be fair, taking Harrington and Charles Rogers was hailed almost universally. It simply didn't work out for them in Detroit, just like first-round picks each year don't pan out for other teams.

But taking Mike Williams was regarded as indefensible at the time and still is today.

He had to sit out the 2004 season at USC after trying to enter the draft as an underclassman and giving up his eligibility. Detroit has fined Williams for being overweight and played him sparingly in just eight games last season, hoping to motivate him, but nothing seemed to work. Williams has skipped voluntary workouts, making it closer to a lock that his future is elsewhere

Brandt said he has known Millen a long time, spent a lot of time with him at the NFL combine, and respects his knowledge of the game. That's why he's so puzzled at Millen's lack of success on draft days.

"It's hard to figure why he's missed on some of the players he did and why he took (Mike) Williams in the first place," Brandt said. "To me, Matt is like Charles Rogers because they both have talent and seem to work at it, but I can't put my finger on why it hasn't worked out for either of them."

Agents, athletes create mini-industry with NFL draft preparation
Thu, Apr 12, 2007
By Associated Press
EUCLID, Ohio -- Hidden behind a former General Motors plant is the training center where Ted Ginn Jr. refined his blazing speed.

It's where Ginn, the Ohio State star and a sure first-round pick, has spent weeks leading up to the NFL draft - training alongside Renard Stevens, a wide receiver from a Division II school in West Virginia.

Unlike Ginn, Stevens has no guarantee of being drafted. He knew, though, that a strong time in the 40-yard dash and an impressive vertical jump at the NFL scouting combine in late February could raise his stock and improve his draft chances.

Agents and athletes, looking to climb up team's draft boards and cash in, have created a mini-industry for athletic trainers, spending millions of dollars in the weeks before the NFL draft.

''It's not an option now,'' said Danny Arnold, founder of the Plex training center in Stafford, Texas. ''Every agent has to send a player to a place like this. You end up spending the same amount of money on a first-round pick as you do a seventh-round pick.''

For players and their families there's much at stake, particularly in the first round - where falling a few spots can mean a much smaller contract. Agents, who get part of a player's earnings, have a lot on the line, too.

Speed Strength Systems, just east of Cleveland, has been preparing athletes for the NFL combine since 2001. When founder Tim Robertson started, he had little competition.

''It's a hot trend now, where everybody thinks that they can train athletes,'' Robertson said after spotting Ginn on a bench press.

Agent Eric Metz, who represents quarterback JaMarcus Russell of LSU, considered a possible No. 1 overall pick, said his firm, LMM Management, is spending about $300,000 on training and expenses for 10 players in the weeks leading up to the April 28-29 draft.

He said the turning point in training players came in 1992 when John Fina, who was rated as the 33rd-best offensive tackle in the draft, moved up to be a first-round pick with the Buffalo Bills. Metz credits Fina's pre-draft training for the dramatic jump. Fina went on to anchor the left side of the Bills' offensive line for nine seasons.

''The (other) agents criticized us and said there was nothing to it,'' Metz said. ''Now, they say look how you ruined the business, now we have to spend all this money preparing players.''

It costs $5,000 to $15,000 to train for two months at Arnold's facility, money typically paid by the player's agent.

Robertson charges $75 a day to prep athletes for the combine and pro days. Athletes put in three to five hours a day, three to six days a week for up to eight weeks.

His star client, Ginn, has been training at Speed Strength Systems since ninth grade and credits his work there with helping him lower his 40-yard dash time from more than 5 seconds down to 4.22.

''He can push you to be a first rounder,'' Ginn said of Robertson.

On an 8-degree February day, Ginn was among 10 players listening to hip hop and working out at the facility, far from the comfort of Ohio State's workout facilities. The temperature inside was a chilly 60 degrees at Speed Strength Systems, where the padding is torn on some of the weight benches.

''It's a factory,'' Robertson said. ''It's that no frills Rocky mentality.''

Robertson has his athletes work with a dietitian - some need to lose weight and others, such as Ginn, need to put some on.

''A lot of these guys don't eat well. It's a culture shock to them,'' Robertson said.

He also provides training techniques geared to improve performance on each of the drills. For the 225-pound bench press - in which players lift the bar as many times as possible - Robertson has them train with an elastic band tied to the bar. He promises an average increase of five repetitions.

''It's fun because everybody gets to motivate everybody, everybody gets to push everybody,'' Ginn said. ''It wouldn't be fun if you were just here by yourself, not having the guys around you to help you push. Me being a big name is really nothing, because we're all going for the same goal.''

Stevens, who played at West Liberty State College, traveled about three hours from West Virginia to train at Speed Strength Systems. Although he said the investment has been worth it, he was a little unnerved when he drove past the stacked pallets, trucks and weeds outside.

''When I first got here, I was like: 'Where am I going?''' Stevens said.

Players such as Marques Colston, a seventh-round pick out of Hofstra who surprised everyone with 1,038 yards and eight touchdowns for the New Orleans Saints last season, keep Stevens motivated to follow his dream.

''I'm going to chase it until my legs fall off,'' Stevens said.

Some trainers make promises that give athletes false perceptions about their chances of turning pro or oversell results when at best they can shave only a few tenths of a second off a 40-yard dash time, Metz said.

''They try to make it into something where if you run fast, you get drafted high. That's not the case,'' he said.

While training facilities are expensive, there are cheaper alternatives for those without an agent or still in high school. An internet search shows training help available for as low as $24.95, plus shipping and handling, for the Adam Archuleta Workout Video.

Sold by Pro-Tect Management of Pacific Palisades, Calif., the video provides the training program that Archuleta, a Chicago Bears safety, used in ''elevating himself from an undersized college walk-on to a first-round draft selection.''